Cowboy Confessional

Guy Smith – writer, songwriter, political provocateur

Welcome ... and beware

Welcome to the virtual home of Guy Smith, a San Francisco based writer, songwriter and political provocateur. Herein are essays – collecting like literary dust bunnies – covering topics, ranging wide, from macro economics to sex in San Francisco streets to shameless self-promotion of my books and speaking engagements. Strap in tiger … this blog can be a bumpy ride (so is his Twitter feed @guyshomenet).

Zany Zwick

Posted By Guy Smith on December 7, 2011

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Malcolm Forbes is not resting in peace.

Malcolm, the previous publisher of a magazine bearing his family name, produced a quality periodical with content for thinking people. One could debate details or overlook Forbes’ unabashed preference for Capitalist Tools (which is what Malcolm named his personal Boeing 727). But rarely could you quibble over the soundness of logic and depth of analysis fostered by Forbes freelancers and full-time journalist.

Forbes now hunts with yellow dogs thanks to Steve Zwick’s bizarre waste of electrons.

The literary effluvium with which Zwick decorated forbes.com centers around a second set of emails lifted from a climate research center.  Previously liberated emails and computer source code were a serious indictment of scientific and ethical perdition. So significant were the ethical lapses of climate scientists that various puppet masters constructed a mock investigation to downplay the hefty catalog of misdeeds. To say that the public subsequently lost faith in climate science and scientist in general is akin to saying the Congressional record is slightly boring reading.

What makes Stevie’s column unforgivable is his ham-handed propaganda techniques that are more transparent than climate science (but then again, what isn’t). Shooting The Bull provides a modern mode for propaganda identification, and Steve contributes to the ongoing process. One can almost admire deft application of propaganda tactics when performed by experts (which excludes Barack Obama, who is sliding faster down the credibility poll than strippers slide down the other variety). Stevie’s piece cannot earn admiration for it is at best inept agitprop, and at worst too amusing for serious consideration, though I’m certain Steve did not intend it to be a humor piece.

Foremost is Steve’s use of The Lie of Association (using invalid associations to demonize a person or position). Five times, Steve describes skeptics of the current shabby state of climate science as “wingnuts.” He also claims they are “crackpot[s] in the backwoods of Alabama”, though I’m sure the good folks at the Marshall Space Flight Center in Huntsville might decline Steve’s bigoted assertions. Yet Steve believes these hicks, wingnuts and crackpots have assembled themselves into a “massive denial machine … a Borg-like monstrosity” who also “dodge responsibility for the climate” as if it were their personal responsibility, and that it is within the power of Alabama dwelling crackpots rocket scientists to unilaterally change climate.

One of the first rules of effective propaganda is to keep your accusations consistent. Then again Stevie actually penned the line “Talk about the pot calling the dandelion black” … whatever in Hades that means.

Let’s ignore generalizations. Specifics are where Steve begins his disintegration. In attacking those who he claims to be attacking others (Steve must be part dandelion), he complains about the Climate Audit blog. It, among others, provides contradictory analysis of what Steve claims are “scientific issues on which there is broad consensus.” This use of The Lie of Authority (to speak with authority, though not fact, and by such presence keep others from questioning the information) obfuscates that there is no consensus about man-made global climate change. Outside of the United Nations panel on climate (which has published as fact unsubstantiated speculations about Himalayan glaciers disappearing) there is great and ever changing debate on the subject. Given that climatology is the most immature of scientific disciplines (we have only 30 years of satellite analysis, and the older raw data borders on worthless) and that climatologists attempt to model the most complex and dynamic system in which we humans have yet to personally participate, anointing as settled science the IPCC’s inaccuracies is delusional.

Hell, even MSNBC gets basic assumptions correct once in a while … about every blue moon according to my calculations. Steve’s accuracy batting average is substantially lower.

Stevie extends propaganda into slander by repeatedly calling skeptics “deniers.” We have to remember that the early days of mad-made global warming hypothesis came during the rise of Iran’s chief “wingnut” Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, a fellow who publicly denies that the holocaust occurred. People who pushed Al Gore into logic corners were branded “deniers”, leveraging concurrent public use of the phrase in another ham-handed propaganda push to brand non-believers as scientific heretics.

Seems that the Lie Of Association is Steve’s favorite gambit.

His second favorite is The Lie of Magic (redirecting the attention of the public away from the core of the topic to complicated irrelevancies).  Steve’s use of misdirection might make for sloppy propaganda, but could cause Penn and Teller to do a double take. Steve’s preferred prank is to ignore the core issue and drive defensiveive/offenseive assertions. By playing defense for Climategate suspects while defaming legitimate skeptics, he distracts readers from the primordial problem – that core science has been misrepresented by the people proffering the hypothesis that humans have harmed the climate. In several instances Steve claims that the IPCC has clear rules for the peer-review process and that skeptics wouldn’t recognize peer-review procedures if they were tattooed in reverse on their foreheads.

First, let’s note The Lie of Peer Review (using bands of researchers who share the same biases to review and approve suspect research). Even people in the business know that peer-review has problems. Take Robert Higgs, a fellow with enough letters after his name to start an alphabet soup factory. Robert is troubled by the bias-induced weakness of the peer review system. He should know given that he has endured four decades in academia, during which he has been a peer reviewer for over thirty professional journals, and a research proposal reviewer for the National Science Foundation, the National Institutes of Health and a number of private foundations. “Peer review,” he writes, “on which lay people place great weight, varies from being an important control, where the editors and the referees are competent and responsible, to being a complete farce,” The main obstacle for a researcher to get published is to find a journal whose editors share the researcher’s bias. “Any journal editor who desires, for whatever reason, to reject a submission can easily do so by choosing referees he knows full well will knock it down; likewise, he can easily obtain favorable referee reports.”

If that doesn’t inspire confidence in the peer review process, then sanity persists.

More importantly, there are different forms of peer-review. There is the structured type that Higgs reports upon, where journals may-or-may-not be relied upon (and indeed, in Climategate we saw overt attempts to prevent minority report papers from being published via journal coercion). Then there is public peer review, whereby all interested parties partake in the Internet agora. Stevie may decry as deniers the folks at Climate Audit, Watts Up and other sources of reasoned skepticism, but doing so paints Steve as being the least scientifically astute of participants. There is nothing wrong with review, regardless of where it is conducted.

I could go on, but Stevie painted a portrait of himself in a hall of mirrors. Indeed, he deployed a variation of The Lie of Mirrors (constantly stating the inverse of a fact in order to steadily remove belief in that fact). Projecting pejoratives, Steve defends climate scientists/activists who in their leaked emails describe how investigative journalists should be recruited to “expose” skeptics, and then laying blame on skeptics for such asymmetric assaults. “That’s the game the Wingnuts have created,” Steve states while willfully ignoring the difference between open, transparent debate and back-door manipulation of the media.

It is to no avail Stevie. One conclusion in Shooting The Bull is that the media is no longer in control of the national conversation. This means neither is Steve Zwick, or Steve Forbes for that matter.

Responsibility

Posted By Guy Smith on December 2, 2011

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The best way to get on your feet is to get off of your back.


Unity

Posted By Guy Smith on November 28, 2011

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We are the 100%.

Politics, like any other marketing snowjob, is about segmentation – dividing the market into small, manageable groups that have common traits. Politicians, who are highly corrupt marketers, love segmenting their constituents and selling to different groups differently. When politicians cannot adeptly cajole diverse groups with contradictory messages, they commit monogamy with the largest voting block. Whatever the politicians’ approach, the results are the same – the willful dividing of people, pitting one group against the next for the sake of power.

The fact that the American Association of Political Consultants exists is a sure sign of the icky intersection of marketing and democracy, and perhaps a sign of the Apocalypse.

Topmost among political wedges are economic classes. People without loads of lucre often envy those who have gobs of the stuff. Thus, when parasitic politicians (forgive the redundancy) want to spend money but cannot suck any more blood out of the middle class without killing the host, they gladly whip into frenzies select folks hanging onto lower economic rungs. Since the dignified working poor do not auto reflexively attack the wealthy simply because well-to-do folks are lucky, smart or work harder, politicians assemble malcontents who favor theft through government. In order to incite mob mentality, they construct simple and misleading memes around which simple minds gather.

Which brings us to the fake 99% and Theft Phase II.

An odd uniting factor behind the Tea Party and the Occupy Wall Street mobs is their resentment of government bailing out failed banks. Unlike the Tea Party that works toward unelecting congress critters who toss the Constitution onto a pyre with broken campaign promises, OWS campers are now asking for theft that favors them. Many young and seemingly unemployed (and unemployable) protestors are demanding that the government nullify their student loans, and are threatening to stop payments if their self-interests are unmet. Simplified, the kids who hate bank bailouts want personal bailouts.

Greed breeds hypocrisy.

Happily, OWS groups who falsely claim to be the 99% (i.e. everybody aside from the super rich) are spiritual kin to the Dixiecrats. They demonize minorities and, through government, savage them. Dixiecrats and Occupiers alike want to wield the armed hand of government, using police and prisons to plunder those they hate. They seek to take from people what is rightfully theirs for bigoted satisfaction and personal gain. Thankfully, statistically irrelevant OWS denizens will wither as did the Dixiecrats.

Which leaves us. You, me, our neighbors. The People. Those who defend every man’s freedom and never seek to lessen honest gains. We are The People who understand “one nation, indivisible” begins with unity around the core principle that all men are created equal, and in that equality, no one shall be forced into indirect slavery. We are The People who always defend the egalitarian notion that we depend on one another to remain independent.

We are the 100%.

Fiscal Infidelity

Posted By Guy Smith on November 21, 2011

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One would think free hair cuts might be a popular offer, except perhaps to bald fellows taking offense to the lack of value received.

It appears that America may be on the brink of such an event, one where (nearly) everyone receiving Uncle Sugar’s lucre will take a cut. Earlier this year, in a desperate attempt to create a passing resemblance of fiscal sanity, opposing political forces decided that if they could not agree on meaningful (i.e. large) cuts in federal spending, that all spending would be sliced (substitute “sliced” with “chopped”, “hacked”, “dismembered” or other violent terminology depending on your love or lack thereof for government spending). The military as well as most non-military expenditures would be reduced.

Entitlement programs like Medicare, Social Insecurity and other blessed bovine are excluded. Seems senior citizens are more equal than others.

This morning combating factions confessed that compromise was unattainable. Pre-programmed and relatively equal spending cuts would then automatically occur. The predictable prevailed;  stock markets panicked and plunged, partisans propelled accusatory sound bites, working Joes shrugged their shoulders and went to work to create wealth, jobs and general prosperity. Well, Joes with jobs. The unemployed variety stayed home to watch twenty-four-by-seven news broadcasts from Capitol Hill and fume over their breakfast Budweisers.

Our current conflagration shows two evil aspects of democracy, a system of government where any activity is both possible and unwise.  Foremost are factions that fight for theft. Accepting the definition of theft as the unwilling surrender of property for the benefit of other individuals, then most forms of government spending is theft. If you are unhappy financing the crack habit of inner-city teenage moms or subsidizing the bottom-line of mohair farmers, then government has stolen from you. Likewise if you involuntarily contribute to a bankrupt pension plan (Social Security) that is structured in the same way as voluntary Ponzi schemes, knowing that at best you will lose at least 2% on your contributions, then government has stolen from you too.

Indeed, most of K Street is devoted to the art of theft, which is why lobbyist and politicians profit handsomely.

The other ill effect of thievery is that dividing a limited pile of plunder creates political factions around clusters of beneficiaries. Since old folks are ornery, have time to vote and are the fastest growing herd on the political prairie, they were largely excluded from the aforementioned across-the-board cuts. Now that congressional failure has been admitted, various factions are rushing to pervert the original promise of spreading fiscal pain across all thieves and the military (unlike entitlement programs, the military is expressly identified in Congress’s list of allowable expenditures). Pro-military congress critters are hurrying to revise the original agreement to exclude armed forces. Left-of-center acolytes are seeking to exclude their disarmed forces. By the month’s end, enough legislation will have been penned to eradicate automatic spending cuts altogether.

And that’s the less horrifying of two actions.

The automatic spending cuts don’t start 2013, leaving one year and an entire national election cycle for budgets to be the debate. It will be twelve months of professional chickens playing chicken … for politicians grand(iously) standing and posturing preposterously. We will witness Republicans and Democrats hurl insane accusations concerning who is the most repulsive representative by financially harming children, elderly, education, national defense, national parks, Rosa Park’s descendants, and anyone who grubs a free buck from federal programs. An already disaffected electorate will watch in amused horror as the two major parties dismember each other’s members.

And the ranks of self-described independent voters will swell.

Lost in rhetorical falderal is the fact that two opposing factions will force independents into the fiscal conservative camp. The Tea Party, like or loath them, are organized, ideologically focused and will take Democrat or Republican scalps as needed. They are the most formidable force outside the beltway, and hold more sway than either of the major parties. Tea Party rosters will rise as the anti-intellectual Occupy Wall Street mobs voice unmistakable socialist slogans, demand more government spending but lack the ability to organize votes for specific candidates. Fence-sitting voters will clearly see the difference between the Tea Party organization and the Occupy disorganization, and drift toward the former given that the later wants more unregulated spending.

2012, the year of the Tea Party is upon us, thanks to a Congress incapable of balancing the national checkbook.

Playing Around

Posted By Guy Smith on November 14, 2011

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If you don’t play with yourself, you never learn to play well with others.