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Barr, Obama’s Bomb
May 28th, 2008Let’s call it a tiny family squabble gone horribly right.
I was at the Denver Libertarian convention. During an otherwise hyper-intellectual weekend (those Libertarians make beltway policy wonks look like imbeciles) I witnessed a friendly divide between ideological purist (you know, the ones that keep the Libertarian party focused) and pragmatics who were backing Bob Barr. The pragmatics knew Barr was not a 100% match to the libertarian platform, but if the purist were to admit such, they wouldn’t be either. The pragmatics won, Barr is in, his running mate Root is a man on fire, and this will hurt Obama.
I hear my Republican and conservative friends’ jaws dropping. Come on guys. Get your chins off the floor and let me explain.
Current polling shows 12% of Democrats cannot stomach Obama. Only 8% of Republicans hate McCain. That’s a 4% spread, and enough to influence an election, especially if other factors make the race tight. Barr is that factor.
So what Dems despise Obama? Primarily the Blues — the Blue Dogs and Blue Collar Democrats … they very ones Hillary hunts today. They likely will not switch to McCain, but in what will be a contentious election, they won’t sit it out either. Come time for the debates, they will be open to the small-government, pro-gun, school-choice pitch of the Libs.
McCain does not suffer the same problem. Socially liberal issues supported by the Libertarians (gay marriage, relegalizing marijuana, etc.) are repugnant to conservative Republicans. Any who would have trouble voting for McCain might not defect for lack of an alternative.
However, these same issues are hot-buttons for Democrats, and ones on which Obama will equivocate. Single-issue Democrats will defect where as single-issue Republicans won’t. Pair this draining of votes with the Nader factor, and the electoral shift hits the Obama fan.
And it gets worse Barack.
The debates will be Obama’s New Orleans and his opponents his Katrina. First, Barr will be in the debates. Barr is backed by Russ Verney’s (ala Perot) strategy skills and Richard Viguerie’s fundraising prowess. The rules set by the Commission on Presidential Debates are fairly low — more than low enough for Barr and Root to participate with his assembled campaign horsepower.
For all his charisma, Obama breaks when discussing the details of policy in a confrontational mode. He will wither during the debates when pitted against well-honed warriors like Barr, McCain and Ralph Nader. Obama will finish the job the Libs have started. Any left-of-center position on which appears weak will be a target for Nader and Barr.
I mentioned my wet cocktail napkin math to a conservative Republican buddy of mine who lives in the Modern Sodom of San Francisco (yes, he leads a very lonely life there). He pondered it a bit, then asked where he could get a Barr-Root sign for his house. “After all,” he said “every little bit hurts.”
Enjoy your moment my Democrat friends … it will be short lived.
For me, being left wing, the 3rd parties seem to do more harm than good, which is a shame because my inclination is to vote green.
I suppose I’d like to see proportional representation which seems a lot fairer, also I think it would encourage more people to vote.
I hope your ‘wet cocktail napkin math’ is wrong.
Personally I feel that politics makes me feel unempowered. I have only one vote every few years. I’ve only voted once and it was for what I saw as the lesser of two evils, which in my country was labour - I think they lost.
But I’d like to see radical change, with care of the enviroment as being highest priority.
If I wanted to make an impact I think I’d have to resort to physical protest - perhaps I should go on hunger strike…or perhaps not.
But I think individuals can make an impact on a local level by protesting. In fact I was very impressed and proud of the children in my village recently, using their own initiative they decided to protest about a road that was, for some bizarre reason, chosen to be put through their park. So they made some banners and yelled at the passing cars to sound their horns in encouragement (which they did), while the older children took down the builder’s fencing.
That was a week ago and the fence is still down and people listened. I got quite excited myself and almost considered chaining myself to the swing.. I made sure I got my children involved because I felt it was a good education.
It’s a shame in a way, that there isn’t a more popular Nazi Party in America, that would split the Republican vote.
Maybe I have an irrational hatred of the republicans, and also the conservatives in the uk. Looking at wikipedia it says -
‘Today, the Republican Party supports a conservative platform (as far as American politics are concerned), with further foundations in economic liberalism, fiscal conservatism, and social conservatism.’
Which I suppose doesn’t sound too bad.
What I object to is for the rich to get richer and more ‘elite’, while the poor get poorer.
‘The American Dream can be described as a belief in freedom that allows all citizens and residents of the United States of America to achieve their goals in life through hard work. Today, in America it generally refers to the idea that one’s prosperity depends upon one’s own abilities and hard work, not on a rigid class structure, ‘
But I think the class has just come to mean how rich you are, and whether you can afford to give your child the ‘best’ education so that they can become rich and do he same for their kids and so on.