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Hot Sol
September 12th, 2007Global warming is a curious debate. Much of it devolves into numbers, that when stripped of inappropriate mathematical manipulation, show either a minor problem or a non-problem. Lord knows I’ve dug into it enough to be on a first name basis with some antarctic penguins.
What the average person lacks is perspective, so I thought I’d add a tiny bit more in hopes that I can ruin part of Al Gore’s day.
Global temperatures have risen about 5.4 degrees Fahrenheit over the last 150 years. Worst-case scenarios have it rising another 5.4 degrees in the next century, assuming man-made greenhouse gases continue to accumulate unabated. So, over the entire history and equant future of the industrial revolution, Ma Earth will have a menopausal hot flash of about 11 degrees total.
Now let me escort you to the tiny town of Aguila, Arizona. I choose Agilua for a number of reasons:
* It is in an area of the country where there is sunshine 355+ days a year, which eliminates temperature variations from clouds, rain, and solar eclipses by Michael Moore.
* It has a population of barely more than 1,000 head, making is relatively free from “island of heat” effects cased by man made structures.
According to Weather Channel archives, Aguila has an consistent daily temperature change of 31-33 degrees year round. This consistency, combined with my clear-skies-and-no-heat-island criteria leaves only the sun having a daily contributory effect on temperatures there.
Ah, Sol! Ever walk outside on a sunny day and feel the warmth on your face? Pretty amazing that the sun is so damn hot that it can warm your face from about 93,000,000 miles away, or about 12,000 times as far as the Earth is wide.
And the sun is inconsistent. It grows and shrinks, and has magnificent gas attacks that make the average Washington Windbag look inert by comparison. On a good day the sun has a surface temperature of about 9,940 Fahrenheit … almost as hot as Elizabeth Hurley.
So, what has a more effect on global temperatures: a few billion humans or a ball of fire that raises and lowers surface temperatures 30 degrees every damn day from millions of miles away. A temperature range three times what the average global temp has risen and will rise in the next generation? If you think it is the human, then you are loaded with conceit my friend.
The Earth is menopausal?
“Earth is heating up lately, but so are Mars, Pluto and other worlds in our solar system, leading some scientists to speculate that a change in the sun’s activity is the common thread linking all these baking events.”
http://www.livescience.com/environment/070312_solarsys_warming.html
Maybe those Martians are burning too much oil..
‘Gaia’s current age in her own time is 23 years’
http://www.metahistory.org/GaiasAge.php
‘Global warming is a curious debate. Much of it devolves into numbers, that when stripped of inappropriate mathematical manipulation, show either a minor problem or a non-problem.’
I’m curious about where you get your facts from.
‘Over the last hundred years, average global temperatures have increased by 0.75°C, one third of that rise occurring in the last twenty years. The 2007 report by The Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) forecast that, by 2090, temperatures will have risen between 2 and 6 degrees.
Even a two degree rise in temperature would be disastrous. Changes in climate will lead to more intense storms, longer periods of drought, crop failures in many developing countries, the destruction of nearly all the coral reefs, the melting of much of the polar ice, the flooding of many low-lying urban areas, the possible collapse of the Amazonian rain forest, and the extinction of 20-30% of the planet’s species. The IPCC projects that this could happen by 2050.
If the temperature were to rise by six degrees, the prognosis is extremely bleak. At this temperature, the entire planet will be ice-free. Sea levels will rise by 70 meters. Many species of tiny plankton will cease to exist, and the problem would echo up the food chain, bringing the extinction of many fish, sea mammals, and the largest whales. Much of the land will now be desert. Hurricanes of unimaginable ferocity will bring widespread ecological devastation. If, as is possible, the ozone layer were destroyed, the burning ultraviolet light could make life on land impossible. Evolution would have been set back a billion years. It would be a planetary catastrophe.’
http://www.peterrussell.com/Earth/RunawayCC.php
Admittedly it could be BS, but i found it quite compelling.
My temp data comes from the Millennial Temperature Reconstructions via the World Data Center Paleoclimatology. Data is available at the NOAA web site.
One of the problems with some of the climate models is that they inappropriately merge proxy data (like ice core samples) with direct measurements. Another problem is their use of computer modeling to attempt to correct known gaps in data collection. Sometimes the models are plain junk (like Mann’s model that magically made the Little Ice Age and the medieval warming period disappear).
It’s hard to know what to believe, one scientist has predicted that Earth will experience a “mini Ice Age” in the middle of this century, caused by low solar activity.
‘Dramatic changes in the earth’s surface temperatures are an ordinary phenomenon, not an anomaly, he said, and result from variations in the sun’s energy output and ultraviolet radiation’
http://www.upi.com/NewsTrack/Science/2006/02/07/scientist_predicts_mini_ice_age/2345/
Apparently the sun spot cycles have been very quiet lately which could be cooling us down –
http://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/2008/02/13/where-have-all-the-sunspots-gone/
‘Ice Cap Alarmists Cherry Pick Science To Fit Carbon Emissions Theory
Ice extent is actually approaching second highest level since records began.
http://infowars.net/articles/march2008/270308Ice.htm