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ABC Poll Dancing
April 27th, 2007When Charles Gibson — the latest serial talking head on ABC’s evening news — reported that they had collaborated on a new gun control public opinion poll, I knew there would be ample buncombe. Having dug into details about gun control surveys over the years — and oddly enough having both education and experience with survey design — I had grown weary of how such polls are misconstructed, misquoted, and misused.
I wasn’t surprised this week either.
When aired, Gibson or whatever corporate puppet master yanks his strings, spoke of the post VA Tech shooting spree survey (for the bored or terminally curious, the ABC gun control survey, results and canard can be had here). Gibson and proto-yuppie George Stephanopoulos reported that most people wanted government to keep guns away from lunatics (though they did not name Congress specifically), and that “most” favored strong gun control (see the video here). This caught me as odd since polling from multiple competing services over the last decade had shown a steady decline in support for stricter controls, except those that would disarm Congress Critters.
In a sound bite astonishing for its brevity, Stephanopoulos did state that more people favored enforcing existing laws as opposed to new laws. You would have missed the blurb had you blinked.
The first problem with this poll was that it was rushed through immediately after the VA Tech shootings, with the goal of hopefully capturing a shift in public sentiment following a tragedy of such magnitude. That’s like polling women leaving an abortion clinic on their attitudes toward unprotected sex.
Strike one on sound survey methodology.
The survey itself lacks the fundamental “opposing question” test, where a question phrased from the opposite angle is used to filter out biasing in responses.
Strike two on sound survey methodology.
The survey then serially asks respondents if they would favor banning pistols, mythical “assault weapons”, and concealed carry. This biases respondents by presenting a slate of draconian controls and predisposing the respondents to reply to subsequent questions with that bias.
Strike three — ABC, you’re out!
What is more important than ABC’s inability to conduct an honest poll even if Charlie Gibson’s life depended upon the outcome, is the Sin of Omission committed by Gibson himself. This survey had been conducted, in various forms, for many years proceeding. In fact, the stack of “should we ban this, that and the other thing” questions has been consistent going back to 1999, when Bill “Zipper Problem” Clinton and the Million Mom March were trying to dismantle individual freedom, with ABC assisting.
What Gibson and his co-conspirators did not mention is that even in the wake of the VA Tech shootings, public preference for more gun control (even in their sloppy survey) was down six points from where it was in 1999. In other words, despite a zero-percent increase in gun control support since the last time this poll was conducted (the year before), it was reported as if there had been a huge change in sentiment on behalf of Mr. Smith and Ms. Wesson. Gibson also failed to note that opposition to stricter gun control had risen five points in the same time that support for the control had dropped by six.
One polling item that received mention, but only in passing, was that Americans by a 52-29 margin favor actual enforcement of existing laws instead of enacting new and equally unenforced ones.
Most egregious of their reporting — and Lord, we have much to complain about — was their omission of what people felt caused gun violence. It wasn’t lax gun laws. It wasn’t the availability of guns. It wasn’t fear and self preservation every time Dick “Shotgun” Cheney’s face appeared on TV. Nope, people felt it was culture (40%) and how other folk raised — or didn’t raise — their children (35%).
Smith’s First Law of Adulthood is “Never trust a politician.” The Second Law may become “Never trust a network news anchor.”
